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Singapore expat jobs under threat in recession, local hire push
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/singapore-expat-jobs-under-threat-in-recession-local-hire-push Singapore has long been the city of choice for Western expats wanting an easy entree into Asia. Clean, efficient, with low tax rates, it's often seen as rivalling Hong Kong, especially with that city hit by street protests and unrest over China's new national security law. Yet just when Singapore should be a magnet for global talent, some recruiters say the barriers to entry are mounting. The city is facing the worst recession in its history, forcing a rethink for some firms on expansion and hiring plans. Alongside soaring unemployment has come a spike in rhetoric against foreigners, seen by some Singaporeans as taking jobs from locals. An experienced nurse from New Zealand is finding out how tough it can be. She seemed, on paper at least, the ideal expat - arriving with her partner right before Covid-19. But 11 months and over 200 failed applications later, she says she's on the verge of going home, unable to land a work pass. She was told by companies that they have a quota and the quota is met, she said, asking not to be identified for fear of jeopardising her partner's work permit. When attempts to volunteer at hospitals were similarly rejected, she said she felt like she didn't belong. The uncertain job prospects, online commentary and stricter conditions risk making Singapore a less welcoming destination just as the city-state needs foreign investment the most. And as workplaces clamp down on hiring it could further limit the options for expats who have long seen a stint in Asia as an important and lucrative experience. The Singapore government has added to their angst by taking steps to promote local hiring, raising concern that it will come at the expense of expats. Earlier this month, it put 47 companies on a watch list for suspected discriminatory hiring practices. The list includes banks, fund managers and consulting firms that may have pre-selected foreigners for jobs or not given Singaporeans a fair chance. This adds to the 240 companies already under scrutiny. The names of the firms weren't disclosed. And in May, it tightened the framework that governs employment passes for foreigners, increasing the minimum monthly salary to S$3,900 and further expanding rules requiring employers to advertise job openings to locals first. The government said on Wednesday it plans to raise that salary threshold further. "I wouldn't be surprised if there was a contraction in the number of visas issued because the demand for foreigners is going to be less" in the near term, said Hays regional director for Singapore Grant Torrens, citing the sharp contraction as the main driver. The role of foreign workers became a key election issue this year, with several opposition candidates campaigning on claims that overseas talent is taking local jobs. The Workers' Party, which clinched more seats than ever, published a manifesto that included tightening employment pass approvals. "The only reason we have foreigners here is to give an extra wind in our sails when the opportunity is there," Minister of Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan said in a televised election debate in July. "Now we are in a storm, and we need to shed ballast." Dr Balakrishnan's office said in response to Bloomberg queries on the comment that there will be a disproportionate impact on the foreign workforce in a downturn. Foreign workers on employment passes - the sort issued to highly skilled workers as opposed to work permits for blue-collar jobs - typically comprise around 5 per cent of the total workforce. Yet among top managers and professionals in some key sectors, the ratio of foreigners can be much higher. Non-Singaporeans made up 57 per cent of senior management roles across the financial services sector, the government said in August. Andrew Zee, team lead for financial services at Selby Jennings, said some of his job candidates were recently denied permits - a first for him in more than four years - though they were later approved on appeal. Sirva Inc, which owns Allied Pickfords, said inquiries from people wanting to move to Singapore in the first seven months of the year were down 23 per cent from the same period in 2019, according to Amanda Jones, senior vice-president of sales and account management. Ms Jones doesn't expect to see expat executives coming to Singapore at pre-Covid numbers until 2022 at best, especially given travel curbs and the recession. EXPATS LEAVING The shift is starting to be felt in the real estate market. Ella Sherman, an associate executive sales director at Knight Frank in Singapore who specialises in expat housing, says she normally signs about four rental agreements a month this time of year. Now she's lucky to secure one, and knows of several clients heading home. Beyond the economic woes and the pandemic lies an unease over foreigners in the country of just 5.7 million people. This has surfaced in public calls, often on social media, for more hiring of locals. When a Facebook post targeting foreign executives at US$215 billion investment giant Temasek Holdings went viral this month, chief executive officer Ho Ching responded with a post of her own describing it as "a cowardly act of hate". JOB CUTS Companies are taking pains to describe their efforts to retain Singaporean jobs. When Millennium Hotels and Resorts laid off 159 employees this month, it noted that the move lifted its "core" Singaporean workforce to 69 per cent. After casino operator Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) reportedly cut 2,000 jobs last month, the Ministry of Manpower issued a statement saying the majority of affected workers were foreigners. "After the retrenchment exercise, RWS has a stronger Singaporean core," the ministry said. Even expats abroad are feeling the pinch. One worker was overseas and between jobs when the pandemic struck. Though he quickly found a new position, he said his employment pass submission has been rejected several times with no explanation. He's now stuck in Europe paying rent for his empty home in Singapore, unable to return until his visa gets approved. He declined to be identified for fear of jeopardising his application. He said the rising anti-foreigner rhetoric was equally worrisome. For some, the social tensions were brought to the fore when a few expats were caught breaching government-imposed lockdowns by drinking and mingling outdoors without masks in May. The incident sparked an ugly debate on social media and prompted a minister to caution against the "visceral reaction" by locals. The offenders were fined and banned from working in Singapore, as were 134 others over May and June. GREEN CARDS To be sure, some politicians are urging calm. Singaporeans want assurances that the government will continue to create opportunities and provide fair treatment, but a vast majority "understand that staying open and connected is very important to Singapore", Manpower Minister Josephine Teo said on Wednesday. Singapore isn't alone in fighting for local jobs. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order this month barring federal agencies from replacing citizens or green card holders with foreign workers. And the city-state's status as a finance hub ensures it will always be magnet for foreign talent. Citadel, the hedge fund run by billionaire Ken Griffin, announced this week it's opening a Singapore office, as did Sun Life Financial, Canada's second-biggest insurer. ATTRACTIVE HUB "Singapore remains an attractive destination," said Rahul Sen, the global head of private wealth management at Boyden, an executive search firm. "New businesses that were thinking of setting up in Hong Kong to attract Greater China wealth are thinking of setting up shop in Singapore." Even so, the avenues for many are narrowing. The nurse from New Zealand has started reaching out to healthcare providers back home. They're eager to hire so she may head back. "Singapore is an amazing city, and we hoped that if we stayed long enough, things would change," she said. "But the longer it takes, the further away it seems."
The best laid PLANs of mice and men often go awry. Welcome back to another effortpost by me generally on the developing arms race in East Asia, this time covering the People's Liberation Army Navy, hereafter referred to as the "PLAN", and its massive growth... and... mostly, well, its massive growth. What that means is mostly covered in other posts about how other countries are responding to it. The why is a bit difficult because, well, China is not well known for open debate, or open anything, really, which will turn up repeatedly.
First And Last Stand Of The Tin Can Navies [ASEAN + Australia and the smaller adversaries China may contend with]
Boned: Problems in the US Air [and space!] Force
--Unnamed-- effortpost on Japanese military matters, mostly about how weird the JSDF status is
--Unnamed--effortpost on Indian military matters, and why they can't focus on China or buy anything that works
--Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the PLA, mostly the air force though
--Unnamed--effortpost on the rest of the US Armed Forces, mostly talking about how the marines are changing and the Army's new love affair with INF-busting weapons
Conclusion?
Glossary: PLA = People's Liberation Army = the armed forces of the People's Republic of China, or China PLAN = People's Liberation Army Navy = the naval forces of the PLA PLANAF = People's Liberation Army Navy Air Force = the air force of the navy of the PLA Ashm = Anti-ship missile, cruise missile unless specifically described as otherwise--there's only one anti-ship ballistic missile in existence and its efficacy and whether or not it functions is questionable CIWS = close-in weapons system, like the Phalanx gun or Goalkeeper VLS = vertical launch system for missiles AEGIS = Aegis Combat System if described specifically in that context, a US naval warfare system, but we'll usually be talking about "Chinese AEGIS", which is a nomiker used by the Chinese media in particular comparing the Type 346 radar to the AN-SPY family, with which it shares numerous technical characteristics--but how comparable the "Chinese AEGIS" system is to what the US uses is a complete unknown. SAM = Surface-to-air missile, in this case usually a S-300 derivative First Island Chain = The islands, stretching from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan, which keep China inside its littoral seas much as the GIUK [Greenland-Iceland-UK] gap has kept various continental powers out of the Atlantic. Some PLAN equipment you might see described--the nomenclature is confusing and a relic of the cultural revolution, and as a result China now has more Types than the British. Type 003 = China's new conventionally powered supercarriers, currently under construction Type 002 = China's first truly "operational" carrier Type 001 = China's first carrier, built on a Soviet hull purchased from Ukraine ostensibly to make a floating casino Type 055 = Guided-missile cruiser, though generally called a destroyer it's probably more descriptively labeled a cruiser Type 052D = Guided-missile destroyer using "Chinese AEGIS" Type 052/051B/052B/052C = the gradual progression of evolving Chinese naval tech, largely built as practice/demo ships like the Type 001. Some of the earlier ones are steam-powered but by the Type 052C you have something almost as advanced as the Type 052D, albeit with turbine problems Type 054A = the standard modern frigate of the PLAN Type 053[anything] = old PLAN frigates Type 096 = China's newest SSBN class, under construction Type 094 = China's first functional SSBN class, very noisy Type 092 = China's first "SSBN", believed to have never left port with an actual nuke on board Type 095 = China's newest SSN class, under construction Type 093 = China's current SSN class, noisy Type 091 = China's first SSN class, dumb dumb dumb and is at a 1950s tech level Type 039[A] = China's new SSK class Kilo = China's older SSK class, imported from Russia Sovremenny = China's first capable anti-air destroyers, imported from Russia
1. The Last Time A Rising Navy Challenged A Dominant Foe
The last time we've seen something like this was in the late 19th century. After the First World War shipbuilding was restricted by the landmark Washington Naval Treaty, one of the first great arms control treaties, and during the Cold War the Soviet Union never really had any hopes of surpassing American naval power. China, however, seems intent on replacing the US as the world's dominant naval power, or at least building a force that can stop the US Navy, even combined with the forces of Japan and other regional allies. The nations in question, of course, in the last naval arms race, were the United Kingdom and a newly-unified Germany. Germany never reached the level of the UK, but seriously threatened it. Previously the UK had maintained a policy of having more ships than the next two largest fleets combined, but this was no longer possible, and the UK legitimately was fearful for its naval supremacy. It didn't last too long in the end--under a decade--and a resumption was foiled by first a world war and then the Washington Naval Treaty. The impact of the arms race, though, was massive. It set Germany and the UK at odds with each other, it resulted in a general buildup of warships pretty much everywhere [South America was, believe it or not, one of the biggest offenders there], established Germany for a time as the world's second naval power, having eclipsed both France and Russia and turning a small coastal defense navy into something that was able to defeat the Royal Navy itself, though never comprehensively enough to change the course of the first world war. China dwells in a much different situation than Germany did at the turn of the last century, so we can only extend the analogy so far--substituting in Japan for the UK, India for Russia, and so on is possible but not, in my view, educational. However, we can see many of the same elements playing in here. China seems intent on replacing the US as a dominant power, or at least as regional hegemon--the ancient tributary system seems to lie fairly heavily on Chinese minds--and in order to do that, it must be able to have some degree of power projection and the capability to deny the US Navy access to areas within the first island chain. It remains to be seen, however, how successful that quest will be. Much as with the dreadnought battleships, I wouldn't be surprised if we never actually do find out if most of the shiny naval toys people have built actually work. But their mere existence shows the mutual hostility developing in the region and demonstrates the size of the Chinese threat. Another lesson learned here is that China, like Germany, may not develop a naval force capable of defeating the US comprehensively, but only partially, and that one of the powers--in this case, China--might be pressured to strike first before the US Navy can close the gap. That ~2030 gap I talked about in my last post is, I think, an especially vulnerable point, because China may look at a degraded, but rejuvenating US Navy, then at their own capable forces, and decide to strike then in Taiwan and the South China Sea, only to back down when the US Navy again eclipses them. Whether or not that will happen, we will see--but I find it a very dangerous and perhaps likely possibility.
2. What the PLAN looked like 20 years ago
The PLAN has undergone an absolutely stunning evolution in the past two decades. In the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis the US could intimidate China with a pair of aircraft carrier strike groups and China could do pretty much nothing about it. Now the US is afraid of sending anything more than a destroyer through the strait. Twenty years ago, the PLAN was a bit of a joke. Even Taiwan figured it could hold the seas against the PLAN. It consisted of a few tens of outdated coastal-defense frigates, some Soviet-era diesel-electric subs, and a large number of unsophisticated missile craft. The pride of the Chinese fleet were a handful of destroyers assembled using cobbled-together Western technology--copied French missiles, American gas turbines, the lot. According to American accounts at the time, the instructions for the equipment hadn't even been translated. The most advanced ship in the fleet used steampower. There were nuclear submarines, but of 1950s quality. Of particular note was the fact that the Chinese fleet had no area air defense capabilities--their premier surface-to-air-missile was an unlicensed knockoff of the French Crotale, and couldn't shoot anything outside of visual range, at high altitudes, or really doing anything more sophisticated than trying to kill their ships with low-altitude dumb bombing runs. In the past twenty years, however, the PLAN has, much like the German Navy towards the end of the 19th century, gone from an afterthought to the world's second most powerful force. It began, as modern China's military capabilities almost all began, with the looting of the former Soviet Union for naval technology. While Soviet naval tech was generally lacking, it was much better than anything else China could get its hands on after the arms embargo placed on it in the 1990s by the US and Europe in response to Tienanmen and the end of the Cold War. China bought Soviet diesel submarines, Soviet air-defense destroyers, and Soviet aircraft carriers, which it promptly left lying around [and turned one of them into a theme park]. This was combined with copies of various pieces of Western, mostly European, technology for everything from sonars to surface-to-air missiles. China then began developing its first modern indigenous surface combatants, the Type 052C, but there were still problems. The engines were Ukrainian and had reliability trouble, the gun jammed, there was no VLS. It is really in the last ten years that things have begun to move extremely quickly, and even only in the latter portion of the decade. In 2012 the Type 001 Liaoning entered service, and although it remains more of a training ship than an operational vessel, and is held back by a poor carrier aircraft, the mere fact that China "built" a carrier was a surprise to many. In 2014 the first Type 052D destroyer came online. It had learned the lessons from the Type 052C, and in just the last six years at least ten have entered service, with a class size of about 23 expected. This rapid expansion is what has frightened competing navies the most--in a little over a decade, the PLAN is constructing more destroyers than the British, French, and Australian navies have in service combined. It is also building the Type 055, which has generally been called a "destroyer" despite being more aptly described as a cruiser in line with the Ticonderoga-class. China has also built 30 modern frigates in the past decade, which has also swelled its numbers, along with numerous smaller corvettes, submarines, and so on. This is why the PLAN has become such an object of concern. While it cannot challenge the US Navy yet, at least outside its littoral zones, the decline of the USN and rapid expansion of the PLAN means that it is a serious threat. And the speed at which it has developed has made many fearful. As recently as 2010, the idea of China operating an aircraft carrier or modern destroyers seemed distant, possibly preposterous. Now China speaks openly of having a six-carrier fleet in the 2030s, although, as with many of China's plans to operate full US-replicated tech and doctrine, these may have somewhat caved to realism. China is mighty, but it has already done the easy part--the last part is much harder, in economics and in military matters. Building the software, the institutional knowledge, the hardware to compete with the US Navy will prove difficult.
3. What the PLAN looks like now--submarines
Submarines are one of the PLAN's weak spots, particularly nuclear submarines. China is, however, making some fairly rapid advances in this area. Their nuclear submarine program has been considered a bit of a joke for some time. In the late 1950s when all the cool kids great powers were getting nuclear submarines, China decided [or at least Mao did] that China needed nuclear submarines too. About 16 years later, the product of this effort finally emerged as the Type 091 submarine. Based on 1950s technology, with poor radiation shielding and basically nothing done in the name of noise reduction, and not even a teardrop hull, the Type 091 was probably more of a threat to the sailors who were on it than anyone else, except maybe the two Tench-class submarines that Taiwan operates, which use 1940s technology and are the world's longest-serving submarines, though they're mostly used for training nowadays. Even then, my money would be on the Tench despite the upgrades the PLAN has made to the Type 091. There's only so much you can do to put lipstick on a pig. China also produced an SSBN, the Type 092, which was probably the only submarine more useless than the Type 091. About the only useful thing it did for the PLAN was that it served as a test platform for SLBM launches. Reports suggest that the Type 092 is the noisiest SSBN ever made, and is thought to have only ever undertaken a single patrol. It stayed at port for so long that it was thought to have sunk in an accident. And the experience turned the PLAN off from building SSBNs for over twenty years, until the Type 094 came online in 2007. More recent submarines are growing in capability, though. The Type 094 is not the noisiest SSBN ever made, and may not even be the noisiest in current service--that honor going to the Delta III operated by the Russian Navy, which uses 1970s technology, and, which, according to the US Office of Naval Intelligence, is about as noisy as the Type 094. The Type 093 is also moderately capable--it actually functions and can fire anti-ship missiles. However, the Type 093 is still considered only comparable to the Soviet Victor III class, again using 1970s technology. Future submarines have not yet been seen, but expectations are that China will make another step forward to late 1980s or early 1990s tech levels, producing something on par with the Los Angeles or Akula for the first time. China also operates a fairly capable fleet of coastal diesel-electric submarines. While some are quite old--the Type 035--most are pretty average for the global submarine force, a mix of Kilos and domestic AIP designs. The large number of boats in operation and their anti-ship missile capability means that these should be considered a real threat, at least in the littoral waters near to China, but they aren't decisive by any means, especially since China is facing off against such threats as Japan's Soryu class, probably the most advanced diesel-electric sub in existence. In conclusion, the PLAN is still pretty weak on the submarine front--weaker here than on anything but its carrier force, but its capabilities are advancing rapidly and should not be underestimated.
4. What the PLAN looks like now--surface combatants
The surface fleet is definitely the most impressive and capable portion of the PLAN, no questions about it. China once had a fleet consisting mostly of coastal frigates and missile boats. As recently as 2000, its fleet had no real area-air-defense destroyers, and no SAMs that could operate outside visual range. Now, though, the PLAN operates tens of advanced guided-missile destroyers, advanced frigates, and still retains a large number of small, stealthy missile boats. The major focus of Chinese warships appears to be on anti-air, with anti-surface being a somewhat secondary concern for all but the smallest vessels. This makes sense when you realize that the primary focus is, at least for the moment, on using land-based aircraft to strike against hostile fleet formations using long-range anti-ship missiles, in a very Soviet sort of way--"Backfire raids" using long-range land-based aircraft with anti-ship missiles were one of the US Navy's major concerns during the Cold War, and the very reason for the F-14's existence along with the AIM-54 Phoenix it carried. However, China has been developing anti-surface capabilities as well using ashms and land-attack cruise missiles [generally the same thing, actually]. Since China has finally developed a VLS system that allows it to use the same launcher for multiple missiles, its most recent ships have become more versatile in that role. How effective these ships are at that task is, however, a relatively open question. Their radars at least seem to quite sophisticated, using flat-panel AESA, and have been dubbed "Chinese AEGIS" by the highly reliable Chinese domestic media. The basic platform their surface-to-air missiles are based on also seems to be fairly capable--the HQ-9 is an S-300 derivative, a respectable SAM system though, again, how capable it is against opponents in an active electronic warfare environment is questionable, and it has basically no capabilities against stealth aircraft like the F-35 as far as anyone knows. The efficacy of their CIWS, again, is open to question. Really this is true of everything about the modern PLAN, and PLA in general. The PLA is secretive, has not exported most of its hardware, and has developed largely independently of foreign militaries, though it is definitely influenced by them. Now that the PLAN has moved away from simply copying foreign hardware and patching it together, its capabilities are much harder to discern. However, they should be taken as a very real threat, and not written off. My guess would be that their warships are about as capable as most of their non-American counterparts, save those equipped with AEGIS, but that's all my guess is---a guess.
5. What the PLAN looks like now--carriers
The PLAN currently has two carriers in service, and two more known to be under construction, and most suspect that it will build several more. However, at the moment, the PLAN's carrier force is largely a paper tiger, designed around training. The first carrier, the Type 001, basically was a "how do you build a carrier" kit bought from Russia, possibly by accident--the "fully functional" Minsk ended up as a theme park, believe it or not. The hull was purchased from Ukraine and then completed in China years later. It is also believed that the PLAN may have learned some things about aircraft carriers from the HMAS Melbourne, which was sold to a Chinese firm for scrapping--rumor has it the PLAN had no clue this had happened and then had a field day looking at all the stuff that hadn't been taken out. This was back in the old days when nobody could imagine that China would have an aircraft carrier. The Type 002, however, is built from scratch, but isn't particularly capable especially as it's a ski-jump carrier, leaving the Type 003 the first carrier which will prove actually useful. The main thing holding China's carrier fleet back, though, is a lack of a suitable aircraft. Originally China was considering purchasing Su-33s from Russia, hardly a good carrier-based aircraft but functional, but after Russia discovered that China had been mucking about building a Su-27 derivative without asking the deal fell through [China tells a different story, saying that Russia demanded exorbitant amounts to reopen production which it was unwilling to pay for a nearly obsolete aircraft]. As a result China operates the J-15 as its naval fighter, with... less than stellar results. It's extremely heavy, and, if it takes off from the carrier, has minimal range if carrying anything at all--it can't take more than two short range air to air missiles into the sky to fight enemy aircraft. However, the J-15 isn't really intended for combat service--it's intended to teach China how to run carriers, and it seems to work well enough for that task, aside from the multiple fatal crashes. There is, however, thought to be a new carrier fighter in the pipeline--most say the J-31/FC-31, which has reduced RCS and a number of carrier-unique features, is being pitched as a carrier-based aircraft and will serve as China's carrier fighter in the future. China also lacks any fixed wing carrier-based airborne early warning, which could prove troublesome--a lack of AEW means that its view is limited by the horizon--and has no resupply aircraft like the C-2 Greyhound. As a result, for the moment at least, China lacks an effective carrier force, but it is likely to continue developing rapidly in the next decade and become a fairly substantial threat. Remember that as recently as 2010, a Chinese aircraft carrier seemed preposterous to many people, and now they have two.
6. Some attention to land-based aircraft
Land-based aircraft as a naval weapon are not generally used by the US, which has never had a reason to develop them as a doctrinal focus. Sure, you could potentially envision them as being used, and there even were situations where they were utilized, but it just wasn't generally a priority or how things were done. For China, though, taking influence from the Soviets, and lying on littoral seas with hostile powers in the First Island Chain, land-based aircraft and missiles are a key part of doctrine. Although this is often viewed as a new thing, called A2/AD [anti access/area denial], it's really the result of a long historical evolution of naval power, probably most refined by the Soviet Union. As a result, land-based naval aviation plays an important role, firing anti-ship missiles at standoff distances at enemy vessels, and shore-based launchers of anti-ship missiles are also an important weapon. The combination of these systems means that venturing within China's littoral seas is a dangerous proposition during war, and some waters, like those of the Taiwan Strait, are effectively considered closed at this point in the event of hostilities breaking out. For this reason air superiority is also important in this sort of naval warfare, as if either side gains air superiority it can pummel its opponents with air-launched anti-ship missiles. China's capabilities in this area are sophisticated and should not be underestimated, but they are unlikely to go through a rapid period of growth like the PLAN's fleet. And a brief note dedicated entirely to the DF-21D "Carrier killer" that the PLA likes to show off. It's a pretty impressive capability, on paper, using a ballistic missile to hit a carrier. The CEP [circular error probable] means that it could even happen, presuming that an aircraft carrier was good enough to sit in one place, not moving, long enough to be detected by China. Aircraft carriers look big, but the seas are huge, and they're surprisingly hard to find. They also move quite fast, in excess of of 35mph/55kph, and thus by the time the ballistic missile has launched it might well be out of range given the fact that ballistic missiles are not particularly known for their maneuverability in terminal stages, at least not in the realm of miles. The DF-21D is not a particular threat to the modern aircraft carrier. It could potentially be one if it evolves into a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, but that's a whole additional can of worms, that I might address a different day.
7. The PLAN's plans for the future--what will it look like in 2030?
Unfortunately the PLAN is not exactly the most open of navies, as I've repeatedly mentioned. There are no public debates over acquisitions programs, no big fleet shape plans, relatively little detail. However, a few things are fairly sure bets or publicly announced. China has repeatedly announced plans to build a six-carrier force, including the Type 001 and Type 002, but also a pair of Type 003 [already under construction] conventionally powered supercarriers and a pair of Type 004 nuclear powered supercarriers. However, it seems that the Type 004 is currently on hold. Why, exactly, is unclear, but it seems to be technical difficulties, which are not particularly surprising given that China's experience with nuclear maritime propulsion seem to be rather limited and have had poor results in their submarine fleet. The costs were also expected to be too high--China does not have an unlimited quantity of money, despite what it may flaunt, and nuclear carriers are expensive to develop especially given that China has not built a nuclear-powered surface ship before. A new carrier-based fighter is almost certainly in the cards because the J-15 is pretty much useless. The FC-31 seems by far the most likely candidate but it could be another aircraft we haven't seen yet. The addition of this aircraft will greatly improve the PLAN's capabilities. China also has two Type 075 amphibious assault ships/LHDs under construction, and I would expect this class to be much more prolific. These ships are much more affordable than the full carriers, and focus on areas in which China is particularly concerned--amphibious assaults, say, on islands in the South China Sea or on Taiwan, and anti-submarine warfare, which is of particular importance given that submarines cannot be easily halted with land-based anti-ship missiles and air-launched cruise missiles provided for in their area denial doctrine--submarines are one of the few things that can slip through that net. The surface combatant fleet is likely to continue growing, but I am not sure if it will swell much beyond the ~23 Type 052D ships planned and the 8 Type 055s. We're likely to see the retirement of the classes preceding the Type 052C destroyer and the Type 054 frigate, and they may be offloaded to Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Pakistan--there is substantial precedent here, and it seems that China is interested in expanding the naval capabilities of its partners around India. The submarine fleet is likely to see rapid expansion if the PLAN is satisfied with the Type 095 and Type 096 classes, and we're likely to see more diesel-electric subs built as well. Submarines are generally quite good at fighting submarines and conducting area-denial missions, and the large and capable subsurface forces of Japan, Korea, and the United States means that this has to be an area the PLAN invests more in--and the fact that several Southeast Asian nations are also looking at acquiring submarines makes the issue more pressing.
8. Conclusion
China has in the past decade gone from a third-rate navy to perhaps the greatest threat the US Navy has faced since the Second World War. This has significant geopolitical implications, and has resulted in neighbors scrambling to overhaul their naval forces. The growth of the PLAN means that the US can no longer easily defend Taiwan or the South China Sea, or any of China's littoral waters. This, more than anything else, is what has everyone scrambling in the US talking about "great-power competition" because denying access to the US Navy and working on power projection, an inherently naval thing, is essentially a clear sign that China is looking to directly compete with the United States. Underestimate the PLAN at your own peril. I hope to have more detail and citations in future posts, but unfortunately the PLAN is very secretive [yes, I've said that fifty times already] and this is a pretty big topic to discuss without going into details about all sorts of naval tidbits. Thanks for reading the fourth post in what I hope will be a fairly substantial series, probably around ~12 posts.
This rally is a mirage, we are only in the beginning stages of this recession
TL;DR at the bottom Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash. We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally. I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable. For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/ I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here: https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/ And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market: https://www.reddit.com/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/ So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course). I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:
Capital displacement from monetary action
Incorrect earnings modeling based on improper historic precedent.
So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries. If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there. If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities. So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement. The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings. My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions: The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus. This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic: For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good. Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down. Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island. South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down. Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up. So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future? Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street. The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized. Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks. Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis. The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency). So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"? I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here. I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here. TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead
This rally is a mirage, we are only in the beginning stages of this recession
TL;DR at the bottom Hi guys, with the market rallying 20% from its "bottom", many people are expressing the sentiment that we should buy back into the market again because the "fed" or the "government" won't allow stocks to crash. We will for sure see unprecedented actions taken by the fed and the government because they have both the motive and the political capital to enact such policies. However, I think this is a misguided reason to believe the market is currently making its "real" rally. I am not not a permabear nor am I a permabull. I just try to objectively analyze the facts, apply a healthy dose of margin of safety, and then see if my conclusions are actionable. For example, I posted my thesis on why we will enter a serious global economic downturn on Feb 9th 10 days before it happened. At the time we were at the height of the biggest bull market in our history, and I had gotten a lot of attacks on my thesis leading up to me consolidating my thoughts: https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/ I continued adding more thoughts on things like the potential efficacy of Chloroquine 2 weeks before Trump announced it in a press conference and the media picked up on it, the potential collapse of American oil producers before the price war happened, casinos going under, helicopter money, bailouts, etc all before they were announced or the markets priced them in here: https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/fede69/continued_thoughts_on_the_global_economic_impact/ And finally I talked about an upcoming inflection point coincidentally moments before Trump first announced Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine and 2 trading days before the "bottom" of the market: https://www.reddit.com/stocks/comments/fleh7e/incoming_inflection_point_for_general_market/ So I'm perfectly happy to make bearish calls or bullish calls, they are dependent variables of independent and unbiased analysis. I hope I made a reasonable case for why I am not personally biased (although, for the sake of humanity, I do wish for progress and prosperity of course). I think the market rally is largely a mirage, and we are not getting correct pricings. The rally is probably driven by two main sources:
Capital displacement from monetary action
Incorrect earnings modeling based on improper historic precedent.
So the capital displacement is relatively simple: If you're seeking shelter in "risk free" investments that has some yields, you're now competing with a buyer (federal reserve) that prints hundreds of billions up to whatever it wants. They're literally squeezing out capital from the finite treasuries. If you want riskier high quality corporate bonds, the fed will be there. If you want even equities, you're going to face competition for them in the future. At least that's what former chairwoman Jenet Yellen recently said about the possibility of expanding their powers to buy equities. So money is getting squeezed into a smaller and smaller relative portion of the financial markets, and the artificial demand is driving yields down and prices up. I could write a whole thread about this, but let's stick with the explanation of price movement. The second main reason for the recent rally is from institutional investors who are incorrectly modeling earnings/yield of equities. So the logic here is: trillions are injected into the economy (fiscal injections), those trillions will become earnings for companies at some multiplier of the original stimulus over x amount of time, and if we add this number to the unstimulated estimated earnings, we can model future earnings. My issue with this model, is on two main assumptions: The first assumption is the length of disruption caused by the threat of this virus. This virus is not going to stop its serious disruption of behavior from economic actors. Especially not in a country like the US where the majority of people have a massive financial disincentive to seek out healthcare. Here's my logic: For months I've been praising the governments and response of South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. With Taiwan being the absolute best at handling the virus. However, I have also been using them as my leading indicators for how the virus will progress and affect economic actors. What I have seen developing lately is not good. Singapore is now calling for a shutdown, after they initially did a herculean job of containing their outbreak. I had hoped that they would develop procedures (that we can copy) needed to run an open economy while the threat of the virus looms in the background. But that is not what has happened. Instead, we are seeing growing numbers of new clusters forming, and quickly getting out of control. They are tightening and shutting down their economy rather than opening up more. This is our leading indicator. A government far more responsible and effective than us is resorting to shutting down. Taiwan is faring better, but only because of their prohibitive ban on almost all foreign travelers (this is obviously devastating to their tourism sector and broader economy). Their economy and society remains open, with many if not most people having hardly any interruptions to their lives (aside from mask wearing). They are one of only 3 countries where all children are still going to school. However, even their economy is faltering as they try to balance the prohibitive actions needed to contain the virus and the economic need to keep things open. They are proposing an unprecedented stimulus/rescue package to bolster their economy. And I think it's a safe assumption that if they ever do open up to foreign travelers again, especially with covid19 having proliferated as it already has, then they will have to deal with massive outbreak clusters all over their island. South Korea, which has probably the relatable and relevant model for us to copy, has recently extended its social distance campaign. South Korea is a far larger nation than Singapore or Taiwan. They have a climate similar to Seattle/New York. They had a major outbreak in Deagu but didn't shut their country down. They never even banned Chinese travelers, yes, they had Chinese tourists in their country while the outbreak was happening. They were among the first to widely use Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine as a treatment for Covid19. They had among the lowest fatality rates. They contained their outbreak without shutting the whole country down. Even South Korea can't truly return to normal and open their economy up. So why, in our incredible American exceptionalism hubris, and far less competent leaders, do we believe we're going to come anywhere close to normalcy in the near future? Let's look at the next assumption, that fiscal stimulus would end up as earnings for companies. There's no doubt some will end up as earnings, but only a small fraction of what is being modeled by those on Wall Street. The average American don't even have $1000 in emergency funds, do we expect them to return to their normal consumption habits when they risk having hospital bills multiples of $1000 just from walking past the wrong person? Do you think Americans, as much as they love to spend, aren't going to put some of that stimulus check in their emergency funds rather than contribute it to the earning of some companies? Sure, there will be some "forced" spending of the money (food and necessities), but if anyone is modeling the multiplier effect from previous data, then they really don't appreciate how different this virus makes things. Even in the GFC, laid off people didn't really worry about the heightened threat of being hospitalized. Finally, some investors believe the Fed and the government literally will do anything to keep the numbers up. If this is true, you should be buying silver (or gold), not stocks. Monetary actions can be reversed relatively easily. They are far more dynamic tools. Fiscal actions are not. You put money in the hands of spenders, that money is gonna circulate. And you really don't have an easy way of reversing that. If we think the government is going to keep handing out stimulus checks, grants to businesses, and other fiscal stimulus, then the inflation predicted from the GFC will come true for this crisis. The fall out of inflation will be difficult to truly understand. But I do think inflation will be disruptive enough to the economy that inflation hedge assets will outperform other assets at least in the short term. For example, if inflation goes to 5%, who's going to lend to companies for less than inflation? With costlier debt, equity yield goes down, and again, what investor wants yields less than inflation? Inflation is going to cause all kinds of disruptions. I think the disruptions will come down to less liquidity (credit will vanish with uncertain inflation) and higher economic friction (less efficiency). So if the response to why the market has to go up is continuous fiscal (and some monetary) actions to prop up spending and earnings, then the question is how will fiscal actions be reversed? How do we get that money out after things go back to "normal"? I think if we see equities rise from here, it'll be reflective of inflation rather than inflation-adjusted earnings. Silver would be the play here. I have a lot more thoughts on this, especially on the time it takes to turn the gears of the financial system and why the inertia is moving us deeper into global recession, not out of it, but I'm running out of time and must end here. TL;DR this is a fake rally, and if anyone really expects prices to continue rallying, buy silver instead
If you’re new to Coronavirus research, start here…
Feb 19, 2020, updated periodically...Unfortunately there’s not just one link you can use to get an estimate of the real numbers of infected, or of the seriousness of this outbreak, and you will have to do some digging of your own. But here are a few points to consider and research for yourself:
The basics
Name. The names 2019-nCoV, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, and novel coronavirus all basically refer to the same thing, either the new virus or the disease it causes. (The WHO calls the virus SARS-COV-2, and the illness COVID-19.)
Family. It is a type of SARS but is much worse than SARs; experts have also called it "worse than Ebola" in terms of how fast it is spreading.
Re-infection. Getting sick with it more than once is a possibility; "recovered" patients may even be contagious or test positive for the virus after so-called "recovery." Link
Spreading without symptoms. People are able to be asymptomatic or presymptomatic, but still contagious, for weeks. Studies have shown that an infected person may be shedding virus for weeks after "recovery."
Ineffective quarantines. Quarantines are being done for 14 days in many countries, even though it has been documented that 38 days would be more effective. The word quarantine comes from the Italian quarantina giorni, a space of 40 days. We need to get smarter about how long people are quarantined.
When Did It Start? By Nov 2019, officials had briefed the US White House on a virus that was sweeping through Wuhan, China. Link
Fast-spreading. Between 2/19/20 and 5/1/20, cases grew from 1000 to over 3 million. Many countries do not have the capability to adequately test people. For instance it could become very widespread in parts of Africa without ever making the news.
Symptoms and Treatment. There is no cure; treatment focuses on the symptoms like the cough and fever. The symptom list is long and varies from patient to patient but the majority of them have cough and fever and the serious cases develop pneumonia, which is what kills them. Secondary infections are also common, and those patients get antibiotics, but, antibiotics don't do anything against a virus; they are used solely to treat additional complications. The symptom list seems to be ever-changing: a March 7 report showed that 22% of patients had diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and/or abdominal discomfort before respiratory symptoms (another report said it was about 50%). One first-person account said that a rash was her only symptom. CNN aired an interview with US nurses on the frontline who said that in some cases the only symptom prior to death was that the tissue around the eyes turned red (not the eyes, but the face area around the eyes).
No vaccine. Labs around the world are racing to develop a vaccine but that is, at best, months away; some say a vaccine may be impossible due to how the virus tricks the body into making more virus. And keep in mind there was a SARS outbreak nearly 20 years ago and we still don't have a vaccine for that.
Lives on surfaces. Many redditors have asked about whether it is safe to accept packages from China. Studies have shown that the virus can survive on surfaces for at least 9 days under certain conditions, and up to 27 days in other conditions.
"Do I have it?" Many redditors have posted questions saying they feel ill and want to know if they have it. If you think you have it, call a doctor or hospital; reddit is not the place for a diagnosis. The hospital will want you to wear a mask when you come in, and will want you to call ahead so they can isolate you from other patients.
"How do I avoid it?" Many redditors have asked what they can do to avoid catching or spreading the virus. Standard virus protocol applies: avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue then throw the tissue in the trash; frequently wash your hands (especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing) using soap and water as hot as you can stand it for at least 30 seconds (the scrubbing under running water is important; a 5-second fingertip wash is inadequate); carry hand sanitizer gel with you for times when you can't wash your hands; avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth especially in public; disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a household cleaning spray; etc. The US has recommended against all travel to China [update: against all international travel]. Some redditors started avoiding air travel, public transportation, and large crowds and gatherings at the end of January 2020.
Other reasons why we don't believe the official numbers
Information Warfare. In the earliest days of the revelations about the virus, a deliberate disinformation campaign was started, to get people to believe two major falsehoods: 1) “It’s not as bad as the flu,” and 2) “Everything is under control and will be back to normal soon.” You will see this repeated thousands of times around reddit, other social media, and in mainstream media in the US and elsewhere. Even US doctors are repeating this propaganda, almost verbatim, to any news reporter who asks. Read more about China's 10 million influence agents at Link
Naysayers. Historically unprecedented efforts have been made to downplay the virus - often by focusing on the supposedly low fatality rate, or the supposed recovery rate. It's far too early to know what "recovery" actually means. For instance, scientists from Nanjing Medical University and Suzhou Hospital have said males who "recover" may be infertile. There is also well-founded concern about permanent lung damage, and possible chronic joint/muscle pain which could be debilitating and lifelong.
Pre-determined case rate. In early Feb 2020, someone demonstrated that the rise in cases was very predictable from day to day; the data curve was "beautiful" in that it was flawless and perfect, unlike the real world. He was able to predict, a day in advance, with astonishing accuracy, how many new cases would be announced by China the following day. The implication was that the data only moved like that because it was pre-determined before it happened; in other words the real numbers were released in a slow trickle in order to manage the public's reaction.
Under-reporting. There are indications, including first-hand reports from doctors, that the "official" numbers of confirmed dead are grossly under-reported. Link
Estimates. In Jan. 2020, some people were thinking the infected number was over 150,000 (back when China was saying it was under 10,000). It's hard to get a reliable number, but there are clues pointing to a worrisome amount of cases. Researcher models have shown estimates of a multiplier for a realistic number that range from x4 to x35. In other words if China is announcing 75,000 cases today, some people are concerned that the real number (including those who are undiagnosed) is 528,000 up to an almost inconceivable 4.6 million. [Update: Less than 2 months later, the "official" number worldwide exceeds 3 million; if x35 holds true...I don't like that answer...]
Suspected vs. Confirmed. China also has a data set for "suspected cases," which may include people who have presented to the hospital (or to several hospitals, seeking care) with the symptoms but who were unable to get diagnosed because the hospitals were overwhelmed. Some observers consider "suspected" cases should be considered "confirmed" until there has been a negative diagnosis.
Crematorium Info. Investigative journalism in China has led to recordings of phone conversations with crematorium workers, who are desperately asking for help because they are going 24/7 and are still backed up in Hubei from the amount of dead to incinerate (imagine California and half of Texas not being able to keep up with the bodies). The employee states the number of bodies has been 4 to 5 times the usual, starting ever since Dec. 29.
Portable Crematoriums? Lu Media reported that 40 units officially described as "cabins for the disposal of garbage and animal carcasses" have aided Wuhan in the epidemic area; their capacity is 5 tons per day. Professor Ming Ju of National Taiwan University believes that these cabins are "mobile incinerators" used to process human corpses. (To expand on that: 5 tons is 10,000 pounds or 4,536 kilos. Using a rough average weight of 62 kg per adult, that's 73 adults per day, per machine, so 40 machines are capable of handling 2,920 adults per day. That's in addition to the numerous regular crematoriums which can process a dozen or more people simultaneously.) That is all speculation; it is also likely that a city on lockdown would have an enormous problem getting rid of household refuse and medical waste, in which case those mobile incinerators would come in handy for that, too.
Cell phone Subscriber Decreases. Jennifer Zeng reported a combined net loss of 15 million subscribers to three of the large cell phone companies in China, in Jan and Feb 2020 alone. Link
"Not as bad as the flu" nonsense. From Jan to March 2020, mainstream media (MSM) and social media were chock full of people conducting information warfare; their goal was to perpetuate the “official” myth that coronavirus is not as serious as the flu, and that everything will be back to normal soon. There are several other virus-related subs on reddit which are moderated by people who do not allow any dissenting views, and who only permit people to post things that have already been announced by a government. In March 2020, the US CDC Tweeted that the fatality rate of this virus is at least three times that of the flu.
CNY. Chinese New Year is a major travel holiday when people go home to spend time with their families; it is often the only time of year when migrant workers get to see their loved ones. Millions and millions of Chinese people were on the move when this outbreak began.
Ineffective City Quarantines. China announced each city lockdown up to a day or two in advance, which gave infected people plenty of time to try to flee. After Wuhan was locked down, it was announced that some 5 million people had left before it started. Many of the people trapped in Wuhan were just caught there during their New Year's travels.
Constant number manipulation. China has changed how they count cases, and has advised that if a person has tested positive for the virus but is asymptomatic (has no symptoms) then they should not be added to the list of confirmed cases.
Practically no testing in the US. In the US, the vast majority of citizens (99.99999+%) can't get tested. The CDC policy has changed several times but even now, unless you have symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization or have had close contact with a CDC-confirmed case, testing is not available for most Americans. [Update: As of 5/1/20, the US has tested approximately 2% of its population, and has over 1 million cases.]
"Self-quarantines." The US relies on self-quarantines. On 2/19/20, WSJ reported "Public health officials in the U.S. are striving to keep tabs on thousands of Americans who have quarantined themselves at home after returning from mainland China..."
States hiding data. Some states, notably Florida, were initially claiming that they couldn't legally disclose how many people have been tested. "According to the Tampa Bay Times, “state Surgeon General Scott Rivkees said the Florida Department of Health is not authorized to publish the number of people in the state being tested for the virus out of privacy concerns.” US health privacy laws contain an obvious and necessary exemption for cases that involve public health crises.
Hacked Accounts Spread Reassuring Deception. Redditors are posting that they have been getting bizarre texts from close friends and family members in China saying "situation is under control" and "we're all fine" etc. Others posted screenshots of messages from several business contacts in China who all repeated an official message practically verbatim: "Impact limited to Wuhan...Everything is under control...will be back to normal soon...thank you for your concern."
Body bags. Rumors are circulating that China has ordered 1 million body bags, and shifted factories to body bag production; someone also posted an online industrial buyer order in which someone was looking to purchase 45 million virus masks.
Monitoring. China announced a few days ago that they are "monitoring" close to half a million people who have had "close contact" with infected people. Monitoring efforts involve self-reporting plus tracking of movements based on cell phone geolocation, A.I., facial recognition technology, and mandatory checkpoints.
What leaked videos and social media posts have shown us has happened in China
Dropping Dead. There are a handful of videos that show people seeming to suddenly collapse, notably a police officer walking down the street, in social media posts circulating on Feb 19, 2020. Videos show people dead and dying in hospital waiting rooms. Other videos show dead bodies laying on the sidewalk; a young woman collapsed in a vegetable market, etc. These spread in China in Jan.; in Feb. we saw similar vids from Iran. On 2/20/20, Harry Chen PhD posted a man laying face-down in a Hong Kong mall, the implication being that he collapsed from the virus or virus-related complications.
Unprecedented Censorship Efforts. Videos get deleted almost as fast as they get posted. One leaked video shows uniformed internet police pounding on someone's door, demanding that they delete their social media post, and also that they immediately must post a retraction to apologize for spreading "rumors" or otherwise they will face legal consequences for harming social order.
Voices from Inside Hospitals. Voicemails and texts from Chinese nurses and medical workers urging their loved ones, "Do not go outside" and saying that they are totally overwhelmed with infected patients. Numerous nurses collapsing into hysterics, unable to cope with the requirement to work 22 hours a day, and the inability to leave the hospital; some have been threatened with having their medical license revoked if they walk away.
Dirty masks. Used surgical masks being resold: an old man on the sidewalk selling used surgical masks of various colors from an open box. Another video recorded surreptitiously shows a team of people inside a shop with a big pile of used surgical masks, which are being sorted, flattened, and folded. The video ended with a view of a big stack of boxes; the implication was that used masks were being repackaged for sale as new. The brand name was not legible but it featured a woman's face on the cover, and Chinese writing on the box.
Quarantine Evasions. City quarantines don't work. Videos show people climbing over head-height barricades and fences built across roads and bridges, family members handing their children across the fence, and arguments in the street when someone is discovered to have Hubei province license plates or to be speaking with a Wuhan accent.
Doors welded shut. People are being welded into their apartments in Wuhan. Some apartment buildings have had their entrances sealed, once multiple people inside are believed to have the disease. Videos showed a middle-aged, non-athletic woman attempting to scale the outside of the building by going from balcony to balcony, and she fell to her death. A small town road labeled as the "Road to Lihua" which shows a street full of residential buildings, and every single building is barricaded from the outside, thus trapping the uninfected inside with the infected and the dead.
Mobs. So-called "recovered" patients being attacked and beat up for returning to their village after being released from quarantine.
Sprayers. Numerous videos show fleets of trucks rolling through streets in China, spraying what we suppose to be some sort of disinfectant, as though there was a need to clean the sidewalks or even the air itself. China has used water sprayers for at least five years to combat pollution, but speculation is that these trucks contain some sort of chemical rather than water.
Birds. A highway shot shows hundreds of crows perched on a concrete barrier; the subtitles claim that thousands of crows have been attracted to Wuhan by the stench of death.
Checkpoints. Villages and small towns enforcing quarantines with weapons, punches, slaps, etc. A car stops at a checkpoint, hesitates, then seems to intentionally plow into a medical tent.
Arrests. Patrols of white hazmat suit workers looking for people who went outside without a mask; they get arrested and carried away.
Packed hospitals. Hospital hallways jam-packed with people standing around waiting to get tested; shoulder-to-shoulder crowding conditions, which surely served to spread the virus faster.
Pets Killed. Village patrols beating dogs to death with a stick supposedly in order to "prevent the spread of the virus," and household pets thrown down from tall apartment buildings for the same reason.
Bodies. Multiple body bags in hospital ambulances, on the floors of hospitals, and in the hallway. (Similar videos surfaced from Iran and Brazil in March 2020.)
Transportation issues. That there were enough dead at a given time that no one could respond promptly to carry away the bodies.
Paid by the body. A citizen journalist secretly records an impromptu job interview at a local crematorium, where he is told he will not be paid unless he brings in bodies to cremate. They offer 500 RMB for one body, and 200 RMB for each additional body, up to 1100 RMB a load if he can bring in 4 bodies at a time.
Failures at life-saving efforts. A man's voicemail (identified by name as a doctor, if the accompanying image is to be believed) stating that for patients who are intubated (receiving oxygen via a tube shoved down their throats), extubation (removing the tube) is rarely successful - the patients die when taken off oxygen.
Panic buying. Fights over groceries, and rice flying off the cart before the grocery store can even put it on the shelves.
Refugees. Social media video posted Feb 19, 2020 claims to show hundreds of people with suitcases and baggage fleeing over the Chinese border from Guangxi province into Vietnam. Like most other videos claiming to be about this situation, there are many responses claiming this one is fake.
Fights. A child stabbing an elderly person and another child, during a fight over a small bottle of antiseptic.
Intentional Spreading. There are videos showing various suspects who are going around intentionally spitting on things, in an apparent effort to spread the virus. Tissue boxes are provided on elevators so that a person can use the tissue to press the button, and keep their fingers clean. Videos show a family riding the elevator, and a male takes a tissue and spits on it repeatedly, then smears all of the buttons with his spit. Another video shows an older woman alone in a different elevator; she repeatedly hacks and spits intentionally all over the buttons and the inner doors of the elevator, and then after a younger woman gets on and presses an elevator button, the older woman cackles to herself. Another video shows a young woman going down the street spitting on the door handles of cars. Another video shows a young woman sneaking around an apartment complex at night, spitting on doorknobs. Many Western viewers are unable to make sense of these videos, or conceive of a thought process that would make a person want to do this.
Attacks on medical workers. Patients in hospitals pulling down their virus masks and intentionally spitting into the faces of medical workers and receptionists - multiple incidents in multiple locations.
Arson? I have yet to actually see one of the alleged "arson" videos because they get deleted (for "inappropriate content") shortly after they are shared, but there are rumors of one or more videos showing buildings being intentionally set on fire in China, with people still alive inside the buildings. People are working hard to call these fakes, saying it emerged in early January and there is no proof that it is linked to the virus; however, since the videos immediately get flagged and deleted, discussion and debunking it for yourself is nearly impossible. On that note, if you see a video and believe it will be deleted, there are ways you can archive it (to a different website) so that others can see it later.
Failed donation efforts. Food trucks sent to Wuhan are not allowed past the city's barricades, and the food goes to waste.
Resistance. In Xiaogan, Hubei, the villagers did not want to be sealed up inside their homes, and they fought back. The police fired shots.
What else is happening in China
Pop-up Hospitals. In response to the outbreak, a pop-up hospital was built in China in about 10 days. It leaks.
Non-Hospitals. China has also opened “quarantine shelters” which do not provide medical care; observers are calling these deathatoriums, where people are supposed to just go and wait to die. However, if someone lives with a big family and has nowhere else to go, this may be a humane way to help the person have shelter without risking infecting their loved ones. Once a person goes in, they are not allowed to leave.
H2H and A2H. Human-to-animal-to-human transmission appears possible: It was reported by a UK tabloid on Feb 21, 2020 that hundreds of pets have dropped dead in China; although that source is questionable, the 2002 SARs outbreak led to research that household pets such as cats and ferrets could be infected by SARS-CoV which they caught from a human, and then could spread the disease to other humans (back in 2002).
Historic Firsts. Wartime policies are in place. China has locked down three entire provinces (Hubei, Liaoning, Jiangxi), all four centrally-administered municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing) and more than 80 other major cities. Some estimate that nearly 800 million Chinese (9.8% of the population of the entire planet) are under some type of quarantine, lockdown, and/or movement restrictions. A bit of logic often repeated on reddit is "You don't do that for the flu."
Cages. People are being dragged kicking and screaming off the street into truck cages, because a spot-check of their forehead temperature revealed they had a fever.
Press Censorship. Reporters are going silent and China revoked the press credentials of 3 WSJ reporters.
Robots. In Wuhan robots (think "gonk droid" not "C3PO") and drones are being used to enforce the quarantine, ordering people not to leave their homes, even for food.
Information Control. Chinese whistleblowers are reportedly disappearing or suddenly being diagnosed as infected, hours after posting revealing information.
Claims of People Being Burned Alive. Taiwan News - and no other sources as far as I can find - is reporting alleged first-hand accounts of people who claim they saw people being burned alive in Wuhan, the alive bound up with corpses and dragged off together.
Doctors Sickened. Chinese medical professionals (around 1800) are getting infected despite safety procedures, and some are dying from the infection (notably the director of a hospital in Wuhan). Usually doctors and nurses aren’t too worried about getting ill from their patients due to their safety measures, which indicates that covid-19 is much more infectious than the usual flu strains.
Irony. A high-level government health official emphatically stressed to reporters that the virus is preventable and controllable, a few days before he himself was diagnosed with the virus.
24/7 Lockdowns. People in Wuhan no longer being let out of their homes once every 7 days, and are on 24/7 lockdown.
Propaganda Videos. In the early days there were quite a few propaganda videos showing happy, smiling shoppers in grocery stores that were fully stocked. There were very light crowds - lighter than usual even - and no shortages of food in these videos, despite the leaked videos showing empty vegetable bins, huge meat bins with only one pack of meat left, and violent fights between shoppers trying to get their hands on a sack of rice.
Positivity Efforts. There have also been propaganda vids showing infected patients dancing and doing exercise; this is all part of the order from on high to keep the message "positive" and ensure that nothing but pure "positivity" covers all virus news.
"Moving Deeds" Efforts. Propaganda efforts have been directed toward promoting the effects of control measures and the “moving deeds” of volunteers, community workers, and the police. They have also posted some 400,000 comments online to counter negative public opinions.
Barring Investigators. China wouldn't let any WHO Americans into the country until recently, but they are still being prevented from going to Hubei and Beijing.
Movement Restrictions. Drones carry QR codes at the entrances to cities; drivers must use their cell phone to scan the QR code, and then the system will analyze the phone's recent movements, then decide whether to allow the person into the city.
Medical situation propaganda. While leaked videos show overwhelmed, crying medical staff in packed hospitals, there are also some propaganda videos showing empty hospital corridors and calm, smiling, laughing, relaxed doctors; one claim being circulated is that some of those were filmed with actors hired to portray doctors.
New medical crime laws. On Feb 8, 2020 China’s National Health Commission announced seven types of "medical-related" crimes, stating that prosecution will be swift and they will not rule out the death penalty for these crimes, which, in plain English, are basically: 1) Don't injure medical workers, 2) Let medical workers go wherever they say they need to go, 3) Don't pull down your mask and spit in the face of medical workers, 4) Cooperate with mandatory health checks and quarantines and don't disrupt anyone trying to burn bodies, 5) Don't stay in a hospital if you've been told to leave, and funerals are banned, 6) Don't carry weapons into a hospital, and 7) Anything else they decide is illegal is also illegal.
Swift cremations. Funerals in Hubei are banned; the deceased are immediately cremated and the family is notified afterwards. If the deceased did not have a coronavirus diagnosis before death, the body will never be tested and the case will never be added to the official numbers.
The Unknowns
Longterm Health Implications. The US government has just announced that "recovered" COVID-19 survivors are permanently disqualified from military service. This speaks volumes about what the government knows about what this virus is and what it does. Link
Death Rate. The fatality rate is still an unknown; many people blindly repeat “2%” although we have not had enough cases outside of China, for long enough, to know the real number. Professor Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College of London has published a paper estimating Hubei province will see an 18% fatality rate. That’s one of five people out of 11 million; which means this professor is projecting roughly 2 million deaths in Hubei province alone. The same professor says that it is not absurd to anticipate we’ll have 400,000 infected in the UK. Early numbers from Italy are over 30% but of course it's still way early to know.
False Negatives. We don't know how many people have it and were tested negative, because there have been experiments where current test kits have failed to detect the virus until the 5th or 6th time tested.
Airborne? Reports from inside China have repeatedly referred to the virus as "airborne." This gets shouted down on social media as soon as it is repeated, with anonymous "experts" trying to convince you and everyone else reading that you simply don't know what "airborne" means, and trying to switch the focus to droplet contamination by sneezes and coughs. People in China, and certain parts of South Korea, Vietnam, and Italy have been warned specifically not to go outside.
Source of virus. The "official" source, which somehow was known and announced since the very early days, was a so-called "wet market" or "seafood market." In reality these markets are infamous for butchering and selling the meat of snakes, bats, rats, cats, dogs, badgers, civets, raccoon dogs, and other exotic mammals for human consumption. CNN reports from years ago documented dogs and cats in cages, waiting for butchering. The propaganda description is that the markets just sell seafood and birds. Sanitary practices in such markets consist of rinsing off surfaces with plain water periodically, and using the same knife to cut multiple species of animals, and the same knife to cut meat and then intestines and then meat again. The possibilities for illness and infection from such meat sources is obvious, and the official story is that this virus somehow jumped from bats (or some say from pangolins) to humans.
Virus Lab. The original source of the virus has been the subject of great debate. It has been reported as starting in Wuhan, which happens to have Asia's only Level 4 Biosafety Laboratory. Some Chinese researchers were indicted for taking virus samples from Canada to China, and, the head of a Canadian virus lab was also indicted for being on the payroll of China and accepting $50,000 a month payment from them. Draw your own conclusions.
HIV Proteins. Some research indicates that the virus shares four proteins with HIV, and bears certain genetic markers only found on genetically modified organisms. Those scientists were quickly silenced with criticism; most seem to believe the criticism. Regardless, numerous articles have claimed it somehow acts like HIV.
What's happening outside of China
Lockdowns. The entire countries of Italy, Spain, and India's entire 1.3 billion people are locked down. The US and UK are on some sort of half-ass "voluntary" thing, told to "stay home if you can" while many people ignore it.
Cruise Ship. The Diamond Princess cruise ship (quarantined near Japan) which some observers on reddit said would be a good test case for a real world model outside of China, has shown an alarming increase in the numbers of infected.
Suppression of Info. Google is believed to be suppressing virus news. Try the search engine that doesn't track you, https://duckduckgo.com
Macau. Macau closed its casinos. This would be like Las Vegas deciding to hang up a "Sorry, we're closed" sign for a few weeks.
Ukraine. Ukraine - civil unrest, riots, road blockades to protest quarantining and transportation of patients into the area.
South Korea. South Korea reported a surge of new cases on Feb 19, 2020, linked to an infected person attending a church service; 31 new cases were diagnosed. The growth in South Korea, in a matter of days, has been mind-blowing (In 13 days, the case count in South Korea has grown from 82 to over 5,300 cases). South Korea may have been a good predictor for what growth in the US will look like, except so far, South Korea is testing 2,000 out of every million of its citizens, while the US is only testing 1 out of a million.
Self-isolation. South Korea, Vietnam, and Iran are asking millions of people to stay at home, to contain the spread. In one city in South Korea the mayor has asked people to wear their viral masks even indoors at home.
Iran. While Iran is officially reporting 3 deaths as of Feb 21, 2020, a social media post says it's 20; that the virus can live on surfaces for 2 weeks, can transfer from animals, can reinfect after initial infection, and testing is 30%-50% accurate, with many false negatives and asymptomatic transmission, plus mutations of the virus. Other "leak" sources say there are 300 positive diagnoses in Iran. Just like we saw happen in China, a government official who urged the public not to overact about coronavirus has now tested positive for the illness himself. Within a couple of weeks of Iran's first case, multiple senior politicians had died (Mar 3, 2020). On Mar 12, satellite imagery revealed mass burial pits in Iran.
Dirty masks. Leaked video shows several women in head coverings who are sitting on the floor sorting through what appears to be thousands of used surgical masks - the implication being that these will be resold; the narration does not sound Chinese; the videographer holds up an example mask very close to the phone, to show that it is definitely used and soiled.
Travel to/from China. The US had up to 200,000 citizens in China at the time of the outbreak. As of mid-March, the US unbelievably still has daily flights from China. Canada still has unrestricted air transportation with China. Meanwhile, other countries have closed their borders to Chinese citizens and to anyone who has been to China recently.
Evacuations. The US has arranged multiple evacuation flights to bring Americans home from China. Some on reddit are concerned that this will only spread the infection faster, and would have preferred that anyone in China be left there. The US has spread these evacuees around at least three states, and enforces a “voluntary” quarantine of 14 days.
Quarantine Stations. For years the US CDC (Centers for Disease Control) has had 19 quarantine stations on military bases ready for just such an outbreak. American evacuees are currently being held at some of those.
Emergency Declarations. The US city of San Diego, California declared a "public health emergency" on Feb 14, 2020. As of March 7 these states have also declared a state of emergency: NY, FL, KY, PN, MD, UT, IN, CA, & WA. On Mar 14, Pres. Trump declared a national emergency and public schools in 12 states announced closures ranging from a few days up to 30 days.
Weak control measures in the US. In the US, hundreds of people are being "monitored" (sent home and told to call if they get a fever or cough) but are not being tested. These people may be contagious. Link
National Guard Mobilization in Tallahassee, Florida, US? A social media post claims to show a small fleet of what appears to be military vehicles, police officers, and ordinary trucks hauling large white trailers; the captions claim the vehicles are Chemical, Biological, and Radiological response units. Two large earth-moving/digging vehicles are in the fleet.
Spitting. US social media indicates Seattle patients are spitting on the clinic walls and floor.
People dropping dead. Social media posts from Iran (Feb 25, 2020) are showing us the same things we saw on social media in Hong Kong and on the leaked videos from China: various, random people just suddenly collapsed / dropped dead in the street. One theory being circulated is that the virus may cause heart failure, particularly during the patient's re-infection (or second time with the virus).
Supply Chain and Economic Impacts
Mask shortages. Chinese buyers are scouring the world to locate companies that can sell them viral masks in bulk. Many redditors have posted that they ordered masks online, but then got notified that their order was canceled or on back-order. In the US, as of mid-February most cities still have masks on the shelves at local stores; though many stores have imposed quantity restrictions such as 10 per customer. In states where the CDC has announced confirmed cases, people are having trouble finding masks anywhere.
Panic buying. Singapore has imposed limits on how much groceries and supplies a person can buy. Hong Kong has had panic-buying of household goods and groceries, with many rumors that ordinary things (such as toilet paper, which Hong Kong gets from mainland China) could go out of stock and stay out of stock for an unknown period of time. In the US we get our toilet paper from US companies; there is no reason to hoard toilet paper in the US! As of Feb 29 and Mar 1, panic buying appears to be happening in Hawaii, Oregon, California, and multiple locations in the US. As of Mar 13, panic buying has spread to many areas of the US. At this point if you failed to prepare, you should consider looking carefully at your own pantry and fridge, rather than going out and risking being in a panic buying crowd.
Global Crash. Economic damage in China and around the world is difficult to contemplate. Billions have already been lost. China produces about 17% of global GDP.
Cars and car parts. Some car makers have shut down plants temporarily and some may have to find alternative sources for components (such as plastics and wires etc.) before they can resume operations, unless this virus magically disappears by the end of February.
International Shipping. Some cargo ships are leaving Asia at 5% capacity (95% empty) and will not be able to continue to operate like that.
"Made in China." Experts are projecting shortages and disruptions in the global supply chain in general, affecting countless products either "made in China" or made with ingredients or parts sourced in China, including but certainly not limited to computers, electronics, auto parts, chemicals, medical equipment, machinery, telecom hardware, apparel and footwear, home goods, batteries, smartphones, and notably, pharmaceuticals (over-the-counter and prescription drugs), just to name a few examples. Even if a product is advertised as being made in your country, there's a good chance it contains Chinese components or ingredients or is at the very least being sold in a plastic container that was made in China. Industries are looking at options for finding other countries to become suppliers, so we can diversify the supply chain and avoid keeping all our eggs in one basket, though such measures could prove to be too little, much too late at this point.
There’s much more that can be posted here, but that's enough topics to get you started on your own research. I really doubt this is going to be disappearing in a month or two. If any readers have a source or video link etc., or additional points they you'd like me to add, just reply to this message, or send me a private message if you prefer. Thanks for reading!
Continued thoughts on the global economic impact of covid19
A month ago I posted a thread making the argument that the global economy would enter a serious downturn unless two things happened: 1) a treatment for the new coronavirus was developed immediately 2) a vaccine is developed by the next flu season https://www.reddit.com/China_Flu/comments/f1fm6y/the_world_economy_will_enter_a_serious_downturn/ The reasoning hinged on whether the characteristics of the virus was dangerous enough to change the behavior of economic actors. We've had past scares like H1N1 or ebola that didn't have any major impact. But my it seemed clear that the characteristics of this new virus was disruptive and dangerous enough to seriously affect the behavior of economic actors and thus negatively impact the economy as a whole. Here's some highlights of what was discussed:
This is why I said for nCoV to "blow over", an affordable treatment needs to be developed pretty much right now. Think about it, who would unnecessarily risk a trip to the movies or take a vacation with the risk of a catching HIGHLY infectious disease that spreads in many ways and spreads asymptomatically and can outright KILL you at up to a 25% probability without hospitalization? Affordable and effective treatment SOON and vaccines before the next flu seasons are crucial to avoiding lasting economic decline But why would there be economic decline? Well, because people will change their behavior as long as the threat of the virus remains. Let's look at what industries will be affected:
All tourism industry related businesses in Asia will take a huge hit. I'm talking about airlines, hotels, tours, restaurants, tourist destinations, markets, etc.
Reports already show that business declined by as much as 80% in some tourism driven markets in Thailand. Overall air traffic in China has shrunk from over 17,000 daily flights to 5,000. Hotels, cruises, flights are getting canceled left and right.
Many businesses that run on tight margins and those with complex supply chains and a Just-in-Time manufacturing strategy will be seriously hit by this and may even have to file for bankruptcy. Let's take something like restaurants into consideration. The ones who specialize in deliveries may actually thrive in this market but most restaurants that depend on foot traffic or has high markups and depend on ambience to attract customers will suffer or shutter. They have to keep paying expensive rent and other overhead costs while customers may take months to slowly return.
Expect a lot of businesses to start massive layoffs. Vulnerable Asian airlines will be first. Many airlines like China Airline are already halting recruiting new flight attendants. Others like Cathay Pacific which has negative operating cash flow are asking their crew to take up to month long unpaid leave. They are canceling up to 50% of their flights stretching into at least march. How can they possibly remove the threat of this virus if no treatment/vaccine has been developed? The reason they are shutting down flights will therefore persist, and they will suffer a prolonged period of diminished business.
America and the West will also feel the reverberations of China's hard fall. The ways that the West's economy is tied to China's is too much to even try to list. But just understand that the biggest growth of profit over the last 20 years for many of the largest companies have come from China's consumer class. If that consumer class is not buying stuff, stocks will tank. Companies that spent the last 10 years using cheap debt to finance growth may go into bankruptcy when they are faced from such a drastic and sudden dip in their business. Expect all the weak poorly run businesses to get shaken up and many of them failing in the coming months.
There will be a feedback loop. There are many industries we can FOR SURE predict big problems for in 2020. We are guaranteed to see layoffs in airlines (especially Asian airlines) in the coming months. Set a reminder on this comment if you don't believe. I can even name you specific companies that will probably go bankrupt.
Layoffs will compound upon itself. When airlines, hotels, restaurants, malls, etc are firing workers, the workers won't have money to spend on buying things. This means other businesses may suffer enough to also start firing some workers. Businesses in 2020 overall are so overleveraged that a large percentage of them are not going to be able to handle even a few months of lower business. They simply can't pay all the expenses and the debt obligation.
So if my logic and assumptions are correct, we are looking at an inescapable catastrophe for the Asian tourism industry at the very least. Just in Time manufacturing keep about 2 weeks worth of parts. Most businesses already adjusted their supplies to account for the normal Chinese New Year shutdown. We are now coming up on the limits of most JIT supplies. So expect some pretty bad news to be coming out this week and especially by later this month. I'm seeing pretty big dips in the stock market by April. Probably -15% by April and up to -35% by the end of the year. This will be our "dip".
After I posted this thread, the market (American) went on to make record breaking all time highs. I believe a few things are responsible for this:
Capital flight from Asia
Monetary actions from China and other nations
Poor modeling of previous "health scares" including the much talked about "V-shaped recovery"
Use of lagging indicators. There is still news coming out of "positive economic news" like ones regarding unemployment.
Downplay of the virus by governments and international health organization WHO
Pure ignorance (this was the "it's just the flu" period)
After a month, we've come to find out some more information about the virus. Some are bad but there are some good news as well. Let's start with the good news:
Various currently available drugs like Chloroquine have shown efficacy in treating infected patients. Don't expect peer reviewed studies anytime soon, this is just based on what was observed in China where health officials tried throwing all types of drugs at it until they noticed Chloroquine seems to work.
[Speculation] Heat and humidity may play a part in slowing the spread of the virus: see Singapore, India where they have tested a significant number of patients. Singapore is especially transparent and aggressive in finding cases. If they can contain this as a travel hub, then they may have a roadmap for our own containment once the weather warms. Other coronaviruses also slowed in heat
[Speculation] Diet may play a part in the spread of the virus. Indian diet rich in Curcumin/Turmeric may have an advantage in either fighting infection or dealing with the symptoms of infection. Hundreds of Indian students were evacuated from the epicenter of the Chinese outbreak and not a single one was infected after quarantine and testing.
Let's all hope the weather can give the Northern Hemisphere some much needed help in combating this virus (stay out of the Southern Hemisphere)
Now some bad news:
[Controversial] The virus may have mutated at least once. The newer strain is more aggressive. This was a fear that was talked about in the thread from a month ago:
RNA viruses like nCoV mutates extremely quickly. This means potential resistance or immunization from catching nCoV once may be lost if the virus mutates enough. This also means that there may never be permanent immunization. Any vaccine developed for it may only be effective for a portion of the mutations. And each flu season may bring many different strains of this virus that will be unaffected by developed vaccines. In other words, nCoV may be here to stay, much like other flu viruses.
It is being reported that it is possible to catch both strains at once (Chinese Journal National Science Review)
[Speculation] Guangdong reports up to 13% of patients tested positive for virus again weeks after "recovering". There are many possible explanations for this, some are benign but there have been several reports from health officials in various parts of China that they're seeing reinfection. Some viruses, the ones that target and manipulate the immune system response, cause more damage the second/third+ time of infection. Some diseases use our antibodies to cause more damage.
Patients who "recovered" from the virus including the recent man in his 30's die after recovery. There is lasting lunge damage in some patients. This means worse lunge function and injuries that allow for opportunistic infections.
WHO saying around 20% of infected cases require hospitalization. These patients have pneumonia and will drown in lunge liquid if they don't get on ventilators or as a worst case scenario ECMO machines. There are 300 ECMO machines in America.
Very little has been done to contain virus spread in America. Up to a few days ago, only 500 have been tested compared to tens of thousands in South Korea, a nation a fraction the size/wealth of us. For over a month since China shut its country down, we didn't even have a working test kit. The earlier one was defective.
Will things get better or worse?
For America, things will get much worse before it gets better.
This is not like the previous financial crises. With financial crises, we didn't have overrun healthcare systems, quarantines, and persistent danger of dangerous infectious disease to worry about. The economic impact will be dragged out because of the nature of this virus.
The biggest danger is that this virus mutates into more strains. This makes vaccination far less effective. If this virus retains its deadliness and persists as a seasonal flu, then we are looking at a potentially permanent shift in human behavior. Entire industries will stop existing because large gatherings of people is too dangerous to continue. This is a heavy dose of speculation but it is also founded in very real possibilities. This virus has a massive evolutionary advantage in that it can spread asymptomatically for up to weeks. This means unlike far "deadlier" coronaviruses like SARS and MERS, this virus can continue killing at the same rate without risking burning itself out. SARS and MERS showed symptoms too quickly and killed too much and destroyed its own transmission opportunities by killing or incapacitating the host. This virus has decoupled transmission from keeping the host alive or at least relatively well.
Imagine what industries are no longer possible if the seasonal flu puts 10-20% of infected people in the hospital. That's the very real potential if this virus mutates into more strains.
Further thoughts I am running out of time writing this so I will give some direct bullet point thoughts on how things will develop. Please try to think about this pandemic critically and organically. Do not use models from previous recessions because this is fundamentally different from financial crises. Misapplying models is what led to the "v-shaped recovery" consensus that was briefly reached last month. This virus and its mutation has the potential to have lasting fundamental changes on economic actor behavior. Stream of consciousness below:
As stated last month, massive layoffs and bankruptcies in the Airline industry will occur.
Many airlines will be bailed out, but equity holders will likely get wiped out
Biggest problem with airlines is they leveraged to meet booming demand, billions upon billions spent on airplanes that are generating zero revenue while grounded. Airlines lose money maintaining servicing and storing grounded planes. Cathay has half its fleet on the ground.
Casinos are the hidden big losers industry. They will lose far more than they have already lost. Casinos don't do well in recessions and will do especially poorly because of the virus. They will be trading for pennies on the dollars. They have similar problems as airlines: leverage to meet booming demand, huge overhead and debt service once the casinos stop generating revenue. Unlike grounded planes, at least casinos will get SOME kind of money out of their property. Not enough to cover expenses and debt but it's better than literally nothing.
Oil industries will be heavily impacted.
Different breakeven points for different oil extraction operations.
The most expensive North American oil extraction stops being profitable below $50
If oil prices hit $30, expect any type of fracking operations to pretty much stop.
All the towns/cities/local governments depending on this industry for tax revenue is in big trouble. And so are their municipal bonds.
States or even the federal government may need to bail out the industry.
States may need to bail out local governments.
If you are in Texas, New Mexico, OK or anywhere with oil related industry, get prepared for the local economic impact of laid off workers and less spending
The virus retains high infectiousness in the 50's to low 60's temperature. Check your local forecast to see when the weather gets hotter than that. Spread will likely slow past those temperatures.
Japan may be pushed into a massive economic crisis. They have the most unbelievable government debt levels of large developed economies. The triple hit of canceled Olympics, lack of tourism, and local recession may finally pop their debt bubble.
Keep eyes on Singapore for hope of containing virus
The more hosts this virus has, the more likely it mutates
Almost all economic data are lagging, don't use lagging data to affirm that things are better than they currently or will be in the future. Conversely, once an inflection point is hit, don't look at lagging economic data to be pessimistic about the future.
News from China are leading sources of data. News from Europe/Americas are lagging. See what happened in China to predict what will happen in the West (my original post and prediction came from following what happened in China)
Huge supply shock in some sectors = extreme inflation. There's plenty of opportunity here if you can gather the correct information.
Huge demand shock = distorted spending on alternatives. Can't go to the movies/concerts? Pay for games and home entertainment
Private jail industry will likely be devastated. This virus has shown to spread like wildfire among confined populations (Chinese jails and Korean psych ward). Almost 100% of patients were infected in Korean psych ward. The private jail industry will need a bailout.
Switch from big ticket luxury items to small luxuries. Entrepreneurs get ready to pivot to small luxuries.
Assuming threat of virus is gone, expect economic transition period of 3 years before we enter boom economy. Adjust the industries you invest in accordingly.
A lot of companies will go bankrupt or get bailed out. The bailouts come in many forms. Some type of loan payment freeze for entire industries (like tourism) is possible. Freeze on tax collection from businesses is likely. Helicopter money into consumer hands. Or outright bailouts like what we saw with some companies in 2008.
Most vulnerable and overleveraged companies will go under first.
Not the type of market to "buy the dip" because even financially secure companies may get wiped out in some industries.
Mass unemployment/underemployment. If you are in the most vulnerable businesses (tourism/travel), try to transition right now if you can. Have a plan to not have a job by May
The CFR is likely lower than reported. WHO has CFR at above 3%. But many countries like America are not testing to find everyone with virus. So the CFR is exaggerated from an unrepresentative sample. CFR may be well below 1%, but if enough are infected, the medical system will be overwhelmed and the CFR will quickly rise to the ~20% (those who require hospitalization to survive from severe/critical symptoms).
Governments should seek to reinforce vital functions (food supply, utilities, medical service)
Governments should seek to have comprehensive stimulus policies in place (US should seek high return investments like infrastructure)
Central Banks are in big trouble. If banks are afraid to raise rates during a supposed "booming" economy, what will they do now?
Negative effective rates equates to a massive wealth transfer
Real negative rates is an even bigger wealth transfer
Timing the market may be tricky because of central bank and government actors. But the direction is negative.
If I can leave with one last thought on this virus, it is the fact that this virus is 100% capable of creating a new paradigm, a new normal, in human civilization. The mutations of this virus is key. This virus is uniquely positioned in mutating in ways that will fundamentally change human civilization. It can spread asymptomatically for up to weeks. That's our biggest problem. If it retains this characteristic, then there will be MUCH LESS evolutionary selection pressure for more benign strains of the virus. Remember that with viruses like MERS and SARS, they defeat themselves by showing symptoms too quickly and killing too much. They prevent themselves from being spread. But with this new virus, they can be as dangerous and deadly as they wish to evolve/mutate into, as long as they continue to be asymptomatic while infectious, their deadliness won't play a big factor in their persistence. They can still spread easily. Remember that of the two strains of this virus published in the Chinese Journal, the NEWER strain is the more aggressive one. Viruses can mutate into deadlier strains just as they can more benign ones. Unlike other diseases, there's no big natural selection pressure for the more benign version of this virus. In this new paradigm, entire industries will not exist, and how we function currently may fundamentally shift. Imagine a persistent danger every flu season of being hospitalized 20% of the time by an incredibly stealthy and infectious disease. How will that change how we work, travel, learn in schools, etc?
1 Sherwood Road, Singapore Greetings from the Republic of Singapore. It has been several years since the incident that put a wedge in our diplomatic relations. As Brunei has stated, it is interested in a detente as are we. Brunei has always wanted to diversify its economy but due to certain factors such as size, is not able to effectively do so. The Republic of Singapore is willing to invest significant funds to jumpstart Brunei’s tourism sector.
Introduction of Integrated Resorts. Singapore has had a large amount of success in operating the two Resorts it has. Temasek is interested in building two integrated resorts, alongside a handful of standard resorts in Brunei. This would require a slight alteration in Brunei’s legal system. As in certain Gulf States, alcohol and gambling are allowed in very restrictive settings, and locals are barred from participating in those activities. Singapore also has various schemes to reduce the negative impact of the resorts on the lives of citizens such as restrictions on the admission of local people into the casinos, a steep entrance fee, and casinos would not be allowed to extend credit to the local population. These regulations could be easily implemented in Brunei, and allow for economic diversification.
Expansion of Brunei International Airport. With the potential for increased passenger traffic, Brunei’s sole airport should be expanded and modernized. Singapore Airlines would also like to enter into a codeshare agreement with Royal Brunei Airlines
Wilmar International would like to expand operations into Brunei, opening an office in Bandar Seri Begawan and a palm oil refinery and plantation in the remote Temburong region of Brunei.
Regards, Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister for Foreign Affairs
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Warning, rampant speculation ahead: By 2030, there are places that have collapsed. Syria, Libya and Iraq no longer exist, but are now ruled by regional strongmen and stuck in low intensity tribal conflicts that don't come to an end. The problem these countries have is that they are synthetic states, formerly kept together only through force. The European Union as we know it today exists only in name still. To deal with refugee streams from Africa and the Middle East, internal border controls have been reinstated. Italy, Greece and Spain are forced to deal with the mess, the UK has further isolated itself from the European mainland. Large parts of France are no-go areas for non-muslims. Other places that have undergone balkanization? The United States. Shale oil production peaked somewhere between 2015 and 2020, after which oil production rapidly plunged, leading to mass unemployment and a very rapid decline in GDP. State governments no longer enforce many federal laws. It started with cannabis and gay marriage laws, it eventually moved over to other aspects as well. With every democrat elected as president, red states began to defy the federal government more. There is still a president, but he functions a lot like the emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, officially ruling over a patchwork of nations he has no genuine control over. What remains of the poorly maintained infrastructure has by now been turned into a number of toll roads in many places. For outsiders, costs of travelling through the toll boots is very high. Internally, many people have started migrating to Alaska, as it still has potential for economic development. In Africa, climate change has taken its toll. Large parts of the continent suffer from drastic soil erosion. The population of many African nations saw a peak before 2030 as a result of large civil wars and massacres, often between Christians and Muslims, in other places because of conflicts between pastoral people and agriculturalists. Harvests fail because of fungal plant pathogens that ruin the crop, a problem that was poorly anticipated. In the developed world, this problem is solved by spraying large amounts of pesticide, leading to a rise in prices and health problems. People believe themselves to be "allergic" to a wide variety of food products, in the same way many Americans think they're "gluten sensitive" because they happen to face health issues from the glyphosate in their food. No mainstream policymakers and politicians ever acknowledge that peak oil was a problem. Instead it is thought that oil demand simply peaked because of some other factor, such as people choosing to work more from home or car ownership becoming less popular. Most regular people blame government incompetence, racism or greedy bankers for the poverty they face. Renewable energy is seen as a buzz from the past. Governments can't afford to maintain the large subsidies for electric cars and other fancy inventions they implemented. Tax revenue is too low for governments to be able to make the infrastructure investments they need to make to increase renewable energy production. After many years of increasingly dubious statistics, a number of European countries elected new parties, only for the newly formed government coalitions to announce that the people's gut sentiment was right and the economy continued to shrink during the previous administration. Outside of the mainstream media, people stopped paying attention to official statistics and instead started using a variety of alternative metrics, like the number of cars sold in the previous month. Some governments have moved away from the goal of "full employment" towards the goal of providing everyone with "basic necessities". Some have moved away from economic growth towards "controlled degrowth". What does controlled degrowth look like? Libertarian types have moved to calling it "techno-totalitarianism". They can't be blamed, as it does look dystopian. If your cell phone detects that you're out of the house, it automatically turns off your TV and your computer. You can turn these options off, but it's not easy for the typical consumer. You pay flexible energy prices, which means that young people living by themselves typically can't afford to use a lot of electricity in the evening. Your employer receives a subsidy for the fact that you work from home and don't have to be on the road. Not working from home, but actually having to go somewhere for your white collar job is now considered somewhat prestigious. Many people secretly have multiple jobs, others make a living combining their welfare with consumer surveys on the internet, often filled in with the help of smart bots. Most colleges don't expect people to actually show up for any activities other than doing exams and most young people don't bother attending classes. Of course not everyone likes "controlled degrowth". A number of industry lobby groups push their own perspective, which they label "alternative growth". They argue that new technologies will allow us to focus on economic growth by selling "experiences", that don't take a lot of additional energy. Examples they suggest are 200 dollar celebrity fragrances and designer clothing. In libertarian/conservative circles, alternative growth is popular, because it's thought that it will "create jobs" and "put America back on track". These same lobby groups were engaged in other activities too. The car industry, as it saw sales drop every year, decided to start a media campaign that tried to turn the car into a sex symbol. Pop artists were paid to sing about a particular car brand and how their boyfriend is sexy because she can drive around town with him in said particular type of car. None of this worked, because the car industry refused to face the obvious fact that young people were unable to afford a car, instead of being merely disinterested in one. Because the car turned into a symbol of wealth, it turned into a cash crop for governments faced with tax evasion by the middle class and tax avoidance by the rich. There is a lot of poverty of the type people formerly knew only from third world countries. Many families are homeless and live on the streets. They tend to do "microwork" through their smartphones, which earns them cryptocurrency. They may report pirated DVD's or videogames found on the internet, they fill in captcha's for spammers, or perhaps get paid to promote an online casino on their social media account. Offically hardly anyone dies of the swollen-bellies type of poverty we know from Ethiopia, instead, people die the way they did after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They commit suicide, die of a drug overdose, die in an accident while drunk. Some die of cold in winter in their tent. Being rich has become genuinely dangerous and not very enjoyable. Many of the rich have moved to places where they believe themselves to be safe: Luxemburg, Monaco, Liechtenstein, Singapore and some island groups. It's increasingly common for people to be kidnapped, with demands made to transfer cryptocurrency to a particular address. Historically, most hostage schemes failed because people are personally identified when they receive the payment. Cryptocurrency has solved this problem, the result being a rise in crime. The hostage taker himself is typically caught and thrown in jail or commits suicide, but the cryptocurrency has already been received by then at an anonymous address, that's used by friends, family members and/or gang members. Most people own not one type of cryptocurrency, but multiple types. Many are unaware of what types of cryptocurrency they own, as the total amount is automatically translated into dollars for them. New cryptocurrencies are typically created by popular websites and gradually decentralized. Mixed in with the bad, some good things have happened too. Most people now grow food in their garden. Even rooftops and community parks are used to grow food. Neighbors secretly grow food in gardens in the abandoned homes next to them as well, homes that are owned by banks after the people were unable to pay their mortgage and evicted. The other side of the coin of distrust and animosity is that students move back home to their families. People generally try to know their neighbors again and share food and electrical appliances. As food has become expensive, animal based protein has turned into a luxury good. Chicken hatcheries are continously faced with infectious germs that spread and the process of producing protein by feeding animals edible grains and soybeans is seen as wasteful. Wild overpopulated animals like geese are killed, their meat is typically sold or given to the poor. The singularity types like Ray Kurzweil are by now seen as a naieve subculture, in the same way Cyberpunk or the Y2K bug hysteria is seen today. There exists such a thing as virtual reality, it's a merger of our TV, music and video games. People put a device on their head and immerse themselves in their digital hallucinations. In contrast to what we feared, even virtual reality in practice ends up boring people. Back in the 80's and 90's we had 3D glasses, digital pistols you could shoot at your screen with, gas pedals and steering wheels for your racing games etcetera, but this was fun for a few months. Virtual reality similarly, is typically fun for a few months. People don't spend their days playing computer games because of their addictive potential, they play these games to hide away from the real world. If the best virtual reality we had was a book, they'd spend their time reading their book. There are still climate skeptics, but their rhetoric has moved more towards the political mainstream and they now also hold significant influence over politicians. They argue that "the worst is behind us" when it comes to warming. With the poverty people face, concern over warming in the distant future is seen as a decadent worry that most regular people can't be bothered with. Concern over global warming dropped, because somewhere between 2015 and 2030, yearly global CO2 emissions peaked. Methane emissions dropped too, because people could no longer afford to eat large amounts of meat, as did emissions of a number of other greenhouse gasses and climate forcing agents. Climate change has drastically affected the world, but generally through different mechanisms than we anticipated today. For example, higher CO2 concentrations have had a catastrophic impact upon agriculture, by favoring the spread of fungal plant pathogens. In addition to the positive feedback loops we're familiar with, there also existed a number of negative feedbacks that are rarely heard today. Molecular chlorine released from melting sea ice removes ozone from the troposphere as well as methane, moreso than hydroxyl radicals do. Do we stay beneath two degrees? I can't claim to know, but I do know that many of the doom scenarios we read today cancel each other out. If oil production is about to peak, we can't raise temperatures by five degree celsius by 2100. If sea levels rise rapidly, the methane clathrates should be stabilized due to the higher pressure. If the ozone layer is depleted in a nuclear war, more ultraviolet radiation enters the troposphere, which means that more hydroxyl radicals are generated, which break down methane and hydroxyl radicals, which are gasses that would otherwise deplete the ozone in the ozone layer. The result is that the ozone layer, like all of nature, is a self-stabilizing phenomenon. Like a swing, we can exert great energy to push it away from its stable point in the center. Eventually however, our stomach will be empty, we'll go home and the swing will return to its center, as gravity continues to pull. As the late great Lynn Margulis noted, Gaia is a tough bitch. If we start shoving her around, she'll start pushing back, and she has some mean techniques. I like McPherson's title, "Nature bats last", but as the serotonin concentration in his brain dropped further, it seems his image of Gaia evolved from a tough matriarch who grabs you by the testicles into a fragile maiden whose last act of revenge is inflicting humanity with HIV as she is sodomized to death by a pencil-shaped phallus normally inserted into an anime sexbot. Gaia doesn't die a tragic death, she grabs you by your Google glass, drags you outside of the bar, drowns your cities in tsunamis, turns your crops into a wasteland then laughs as you stumble home and blame "anti-science Facebook moms" who refused to eat your GMO crops or have a Thorium reactor in their backyard for the fact that you got your ass kicked.
Data on the Economic Impact of Casino Gambling. The qualitative information will be gathered to augment information that obtained from the crime statistic and the public opinion survey. The economic impacts of casino gambling are tangible and quantifiable. Casino tourism is an important part of economies around the world. But how many tourists come in, and what impact do they have? Here's a closer look at Australia, the US, Singapore, Monaco & Cambodia. Singapore only recently legalized casino gambling, and the per-head spend isn't a surprise. questions are being raised about how economic protectionism will impact gambling in Europe in years While it’s still too early to accurately assess the economic and social impact of the resorts, for now all bets are on for the success — at least monetarily — of Singaporean casinos. Singapore has taken steps to refresh what the two integrated resorts here offer, but it will also keep an eye on the impact that their casinos have on society, said Trade and Industry Minister Future research should explore whether the differences in social structures, culture, and established lifestyles between residents of Macau and Singapore, which may be influenced by their similar ethnic traditions and external economic-political interference, have led to differences in the residents' viewpoints toward the impact of casino gambling. Economic Impact Both Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa, currently contribute between 1.5 percent and 2 percent to Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Ministry of Singapore's casino resorts to pour $6.6bn into expansion City-state approves plans with eye on staying a top Asian destination An artist's rendering of the Marina Bay Sands casino resort in Casino jobs have been a magnificence “welfare to work” example. Furthermore, casino jobs can create immediately employment opportunity in some areas. Secondly, Economic development is a multifaceted concept that reflects numerous concerns not captured by conventional income statistics (Chen, J. S., 2010). The outlook for the local casino gaming sector is stable despite slowing economic growth and fewer tourist arrivals, said rating agency Fitch Ratings yesterday.. Read more at straitstimes.com.
Cambodia's Casino Boom Town, Created By Chinese Money ...
EdgeProp Singapore 3,670 views 1:38 Martha Argerich, Kissin, Levine, Pletnev Bach Concerto For 4 Pianos Bwv 1065 Verbier, July 22 2002 - Duration: 12:45. Chinese money has transformed the once-sleepy backpacker destination of Sihanoukville, Cambodia into a gambling resort hub with 30 casinos, and 70 more being... The spread of the coronavirus has pushed the pause button on one of the world’s biggest economic powerhouses: China. China makes up a third of world manufact... Singapore had a severe housing shortage decades ago. But it developed one of the world's best public housing programs, which has also allowed a huge number o... As China begins to reopen its factories and return back to work, what they are returning to will not be the same…Despite China being the worlds economic darl... Get a 2 month free trial of Skillshare: https://skl.sh/polymatter19 Twitter: https://twitter.com/polymatters Patreon: https://patreon.com/polymatter Pins & T... Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said Thursday that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring significant long-term impact on the country's economy. The prime... Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said the economic impact from the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak could already be greater than SARS in 2003. He h... The coronavirus pandemic has killed thousands of people, crashed stockmarkets around the world, driven 10m Americans to claim unemployment and caused busines... Leaders and experts have said the economic impact from the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak is surpassing that of the SARS epidemic in 2003. The rapid spread of the...